𝑾𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒍 𝒃𝒆𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒊𝒐𝒓𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒈𝒐𝒐𝒅 𝒉𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒛𝒐𝒏 𝒔𝒄𝒂𝒏𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒔?

The world may seem ever more uncertain, but we have learned to better predict events that at face may appear unforecastable, for instance through the Good Judment project. 

Horizon scanning helps leaders make the right decisions now, despite the uncertainty they face.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠?

Horizon scanning is about systematically detecting early signals of potentially important developments. It’s about turning foresight into insight and insight into action.

𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐞𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠:

Curiosity

The future is already here—it’s just not at center stage yet. Like melting snow, disruptions start at the edges. Great horizon scanners don’t just read about emerging phenomena; they go and see them.

Scientific approach

Breaking down problems, distinguishing the known from the unknown, and leveraging diverse data sources—these are the needed for good horizon scanning.

Humility

Early signals come with scarce data and are prone to bias. Effective horizon scanners continuously update their views as new data emerges, avoiding the trap of inertia.

Compelling storytelling

Insight alone won’t drive action. The best horizon scanners create momentum by crafting narratives that inspire action, even in the face of high uncertainty.

What do you think is essential for effective horizon scanning?